Watch TOI for the next market trigger
In India TOI stands for Times of India , one of the most popular newspaper . However in this case it is Trump , Oil and Interest rates ! This new TOI is the key driver of the Equity market for the next one month .
Trump : The market has never faced anything like Trump . He is disruption personified . Is the market prepared for a Trump win . No as it cannot factor in such an event . The market is very bad at pricing in unpredictability .
Oil : Just when we convinced ourselves that we will have cars running on solar power batteries if not on wind power, Oil recovered from its lows . Those who thought Oil is headed towards 15 tweaked their prediction to 51 !!! The oversupply situation continues , however with Opec and Russia coming together , the story of supply side actions looks more credible .
Interest Rates : Will US raise interest rates this year . As conflicting indications from the Fed keeps us guessing the market will remain volatile based on the news flow.
China : If TOI is not good enough , look at China . China growth numbers will be competing with the other three factors to influence the market direction .
Prepare for some volatility on INR /USD . On NIFTY day trades can go long with strict stop losses. Take your profits on previous Short positions .